Must-see for election junkies: Dales' Electoral College Breakdown, with detailed analysis per state.
The states are arranged in the following categories:
- Safe: polls give one candidate a lead of 20 % or more
- Strong: lead between 10 % and 20 % for one candidate
- Lean: lead greater than two stated uncertainties of poll (i.e. greater than effective uncertainty of difference in two-way race)
- Slight: lead between one and two stated uncertainties
- Toss-up: lead less than one stated uncertainty
Safe, Strong, and Lean added together: Bush 252, Kerry 161; if "Slight"s are added in, Bush 291, Kerry 228.
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